JNS
The death of the leader is unlikely to affect the war but will significantly complicate Hamas-Fatah unity prospects.
At least two Palestinians have good reason to be satisfied following the killing in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s “political bureau”: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. For both, Haniyeh has long been a political rival whose departure from the Palestinian political arena will not be lamented.
Public opinion polls conducted by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research over the past decade have consistently shown that Haniyeh is the only Hamas leader who could defeat Abbas in a Palestinian presidential election.
Abbas and his cohorts in Ramallah have always been wary of Haniyeh’s popularity among the Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. His popularity mainly stems from the fact that he came from a refugee camp (Shati) and led what was perceived as a relatively modest life compared to Abbas and other Palestinian Authority leaders and officials. Haniyeh’s close association with Hamas co-founder and spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin also earned him the respect of many Palestinians. Before he rose to the helm of the terrorist group, Haniyeh, also known as Abu al-Abed, served as Yassin’s personal and most trusted aid.
Abbas and the P.A. leadership were also concerned about Haniyeh’s success in the diplomatic and international arena. They followed with deep concern Haniyeh’s visits to Arab and Islamic countries, where he was often received as a legitimate leader of the Palestinians. In Ramallah, there was also dissatisfaction over the close ties Haniyeh established with the rulers of Qatar.
On several occasions, P.A. officials and representatives of Abbas’s ruling Fatah faction accused Qatar of promoting Haniyeh as a statesman and essential actor. Yet, Abbas and his senior officials refrained from directing harsh criticism against Haniyeh, even after Hamas’s violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007. That’s because they knew that Haniyeh, who had little if any control over Hamas’s armed wing, did not play a vital role in the “coup” against the P.A. In addition, Abbas and his top aides were undoubtedly aware that it would be unwise to lash out at a figure who enjoyed widespread popularity among the Palestinians.
At times, it seemed that Abbas and other Fatah leaders were on good terms with Haniyeh. Despite the Fatah-Hamas rivalry, Abbas and Haniyeh did not hesitate to meet or talk over the phone to discuss various issues, particularly ways of “reconciling” their rival parties. The last meeting between the two was held under the auspices of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2023. A year earlier, Abbas and Haniyeh held a similar meeting in Algeria. Although the meetings did not lead to a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas, they were seen as an indication that the two sides’ leaders could still meet to discuss “national unity.”
Shortly after Haniyeh’s death, Abbas and Fatah issued separate statements in which they strongly condemned the killing as a “cowardly act” and “a dangerous development.” Such statements, however, are viewed by many Palestinians as mere lip service directed toward the Palestinian public. It’s hard to conclude that Abbas and Fatah are genuinely grieving over the death of a Hamas leader.
On the other hand, Haniyeh's death is likely to hinder efforts to achieve “national unity” between Fatah and Hamas. Haniyeh was one of the few Hamas leaders who fully supported mediation efforts by Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to end the Fatah-Hamas dispute. Other Hamas leaders, such as Sinwar and Mahmoud Zahar, were not enthusiastic about Haniyeh’s “lenient” approach toward the P.A. and Fatah. His death coincided with increased talk about a possible “unity” deal between Fatah and Hamas in the wake of a recent meeting between the two sides in China.
Haniyeh was one of several Hamas leaders who left the Gaza Strip in the past few years. According to Palestinian sources, they did not feel comfortable in the presence of Sinwar, especially after the latter, together with Mohammed Deif and slain Hamas operative Saleh al-Arouri, took complete control of Hamas’s armed wing. Sinwar and Deif did their utmost to marginalize and humiliate Haniyeh and other Hamas political leaders in the Gaza Strip. In the end, Haniyeh and his friends got the message and left Gaza to join other Hamas leaders in Qatar, Turkey and Lebanon.
Haniyeh's death is unlikely to have any effect on the current Israel-Hamas war, as he held no influence over the group’s military wing. It’s also unclear what role Haniyeh played in the negotiations to secure the release of the Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip. According to some reports, Sinwar and Deif were unhappy with how Haniyeh and the outside leadership of Hamas were conducting the negotiations.
His death may be a severe blow to Hamas but is unlikely to expedite the demise of the terror group. Israel has targeted many Hamas leaders over the past two decades, only to see them quickly replaced by other figures. It now remains to be seen what impact the absence of one of Hamas’s significant symbols and figureheads will have on the group, both in the Gaza Strip and abroad, as well as efforts to reach a ceasefire and a deal over the hostages.
Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
