By Dror Dorin, JNS
Hezbollah’s rivals are openly, and with great fervor, demanding its disarmament and an end to its control over state institutions.
Lebanon stands at a pivotal crossroads. For decades, Hezbollah, fueled by Iranian patronage and bolstered by Syrian support, has held the nation’s destiny in its iron grasp. Yet with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the recent elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s once-charismatic leader, that seemingly unbreakable hold is weakening. Stripped of vital supply lines, cut off from Tehran’s backing and now led by an unremarkable successor, Hezbollah’s dominance is at its most tenuous point in living memory. The question is whether Lebanon will seize this rare opportunity to free itself from the militant organization’s stranglehold.
Hezbollah’s origins trace back to the early 1980s when it was conceived, guided and grew into a force to be reckoned with under the influence of Ali Akbar Mohtashami, Iran’s ambassador to Syria. Today, the group’s circumstances are dire. Its diminished leader, Naim Qassem, has publicly acknowledged that the downfall of Assad and a relentless Israeli campaign have severely curtailed Hezbollah’s ability to rearm. Just as damaging, the crucial supply network—from Beirut’s southern suburbs, through Damascus and onward to Iran—has been severed.
Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah still holds influence in the Lebanese domestic arena through its political allies, including Nabih Berri, speaker of the parliament, and Najib Mikati, the country’s caretaker prime minister. Crucially, it still commands tens of thousands of armed men capable of turning their weapons against their rivals and violently resisting any attempt to strip Hezbollah of its powers. Despite this, Hezbollah’s rivals are openly—and with great fervor—demanding its disarmament and an end to its control over state institutions, as well as its use as an instrument of Iranian influence in Lebanon.
To this end, Gibran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, a long-standing ally of Hezbollah, has even called on its leadership to distance itself from the “Axis of Resistance,” the coalition of Iranian-backed militias and political supporters across the Middle East. The chances of a concession to Bassil’s demands are virtually nonexistent, as they directly contradict Hezbollah’s core identity, loyalty and religious subordination to the supreme leader in Tehran. Without the Iranian regime’s support, Hezbollah will cease to exist in its current form, but the fact that such a call comes from an ally demonstrates the enormous shift in the political reality on the ground.
Lebanon, which during the 1960s was a beacon of Mediterranean liberal cosmopolitanism in the Middle East, has fallen into the abyss of political and religious radicalism—first as a victim of Palestinian militants and later as a conduit for Iranian regional ambitions. The opportunity to regain this living-memory status must be appealing, as is the possibility of regaining Lebanon’s sovereignty, independence and good standing in the world.
Under Hezbollah’s influence, meaningful reform in Lebanon is impossible. Despite losing its parliamentary majority in 2022, the group remains capable of systematically obstructing every effort at meaningful change, including the appointment of a new president—Lebanon’s top executive position, traditionally reserved for a Christian. Given that Christian political and religious leaders are among Hezbollah’s most vocal critics, the organization spares no effort to block a presidential candidate who might pursue a reform agenda.
This domestic “cold war” between Hezbollah and its rivals will reach its peak in the next few weeks, as the upcoming session of parliament is expected to be the one that will determine who is appointed president. Throughout this volatile period, despite attempts by Hezbollah to manipulate the parliamentary session, all the signs indicate that the opposition’s patience with the terror group’s political games is at an end.
This was expressed by Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces—the largest Christian party in parliament—when he stated: “We reserve the right to re-evaluate everything, and I mean it, because we won’t accept continuing living in this same situation.” His remarks hint at a readiness to reassess the party’s stance if the government fails to fulfill its commitment to disarm Hezbollah as stipulated in the recent ceasefire agreement with Israel.
In the past, the Lebanese people have demonstrated the patriotic spirit needed to bring about much-needed change. In 2005, people took to the streets of Beirut in large numbers, calling for the end of Syria’s presence in the country. The Cedar Revolution was a huge display of public dissent, which caused Syrian President Bashar Assad to withdraw his forces from the country, ending 39 years of Syrian occupation.
Today, as political tensions in Lebanon rise—also fueled by the contentious issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament under a ceasefire agreement with Israel—liberal, Western-oriented forces opposing Hezbollah’s dominance are approaching a critical turning point.
The question now is whether the opposition will obey the political rules defined by Hezbollah and its allies or seize upon the group’s moment of historical weakness to spark a new civilian uprising, one that rekindles the spirit of the Cedar Revolution and breaks Hezbollah’s stranglehold of Lebanon once and for all.
